GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▼ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaja Alternative Asset Management GMP ₹19 on issue ₹160 | 26 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +11.88% | +15.63% | 3.8pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Mopshop Distribution GMP ₹1 on issue ₹138 | 26 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.72% | -0.72% | 1.4pp | 99% | ❌ |
| Sunshine Pictures GMP ₹80 on issue ₹360 | 25 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +22.22% | +9.97% | 12.3pp | 88% | ✅ |
| Shankesh Jewellers GMP ₹5 on issue ₹93 | 25 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +5.38% | +11.08% | 5.7pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Lalithaa Jewellery Mart GMP ₹54 on issue ₹201 | 24 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +26.87% | +31.84% | 5.0pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Horizon Industrial Parks GMP ₹1 on issue ₹60 | 24 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +2.17% | +0.42% | 1.8pp | 98% | ✅ |
| ENS Enterprises GMP ₹4 on issue ₹92 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +4.35% | +4.35% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Technocrats Plasma Systems GMP ₹43 on issue ₹132 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +32.58% | +74.24% | 41.7pp | 58% | ✅ |
| Skytech Infinite Platform GMP ₹1 on issue ₹77 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +1.30% | -3.90% | 5.2pp | 95% | ❌ |
| Credent Connect N Care GMP ₹45 on issue ₹189 | 20 Aug 2026 | SME | +23.81% | +90.00% | 66.2pp | 34% | ✅ |
| Shiprocket GMP ₹34 on issue ₹97 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +35.05% | +35.05% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Q&T Foods GMP ₹1 on issue ₹115 | 19 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.87% | +0.00% | 0.9pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Behari Lal Engineering GMP ₹83 on issue ₹285 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +29.12% | +63.16% | 34.0pp | 66% | ✅ |
| Sham Foam GMP ₹4 on issue ₹130 | 18 Aug 2026 | SME | +3.08% | -20.00% | 23.1pp | 77% | ❌ |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food GMP ₹26 on issue ₹140 | 18 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +18.57% | +17.86% | 0.7pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Dhoot Transmission GMP ₹276 on issue ₹871 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +31.69% | +37.77% | 6.1pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Molbio Diagnostics GMP ₹154 on issue ₹807 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +19.08% | +21.44% | 2.4pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Technocraft Ventures GMP ₹29 on issue ₹212 | 14 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +13.68% | +33.96% | 20.3pp | 80% | ✅ |
| LEAP India GMP ₹12 on issue ₹159 | 14 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +7.55% | +4.34% | 3.2pp | 97% | ✅ |
| LAPL Automotive GMP ₹39 on issue ₹94 | 13 Aug 2026 | SME | +41.49% | +43.62% | 2.1pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Ardee Industries GMP ₹15 on issue ₹53 | 12 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +28.30% | +35.85% | 7.5pp | 92% | ✅ |
| G.V.Electricals GMP ₹26 on issue ₹130 | 12 Aug 2026 | SME | +20.00% | +21.54% | 1.5pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Aegeus Technologies GMP ₹12 on issue ₹105 | 11 Aug 2026 | SME | +11.43% | +18.57% | 7.1pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Fusion Klassroom Edutech GMP ₹4 on issue ₹159 | 07 Aug 2026 | SME | +2.52% | +6.92% | 4.4pp | 96% | ✅ |
| MV Electrosystems GMP ₹100 on issue ₹425 | 06 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +23.53% | +22.35% | 1.2pp | 99% | ✅ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.