GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 29 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
29
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
88%
Key findings from 29 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 29 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 90% vs 87%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 93% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 88% (29 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (orange) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▼ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shiprocket GMP ₹34 on issue ₹97 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +35.05% | +35.05% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Behari Lal Engineering GMP ₹83 on issue ₹285 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +29.12% | +63.16% | 34.0pp | 66% | ✅ |
| Q&T Foods GMP ₹1 on issue ₹115 | 19 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.87% | +0.00% | 0.9pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food GMP ₹26 on issue ₹140 | 18 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +18.57% | +17.86% | 0.7pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Dhoot Transmission Limited GMP ₹276 on issue ₹871 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +31.69% | +37.77% | 6.1pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Molbio Diagnostics GMP ₹154 on issue ₹807 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +19.08% | +21.44% | 2.4pp | 98% | ✅ |
| G.V.Electricals GMP ₹26 on issue ₹130 | 12 Aug 2026 | SME | +20.00% | +21.54% | 1.5pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Ardee Industries GMP ₹15 on issue ₹53 | 12 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +28.30% | +35.85% | 7.5pp | 92% | ✅ |
| Aegeus Technologies GMP ₹12 on issue ₹105 | 11 Aug 2026 | SME | +11.43% | +18.57% | 7.1pp | 93% | ✅ |
| SBI Funds Management GMP ₹97 on issue ₹574 | 21 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +16.90% | +6.85% | 10.1pp | 90% | ✅ |
| Advit Jewels GMP ₹46 on issue ₹138 | 01 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +33.30% | +36.88% | 3.6pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Avience Biomedicals Limited GMP ₹72 on issue ₹196 | 25 Jun 2026 | SME | +34.60% | +101.63% | 67.0pp | 33% | ✅ |
| Liotech Industries GMP ₹1 on issue ₹321 | 24 Jun 2026 | SME | +0.30% | -19.94% | 20.2pp | 80% | ❌ |
| Leapfrog Engineering Services GMP ₹1 on issue ₹23 | 24 Jun 2026 | SME | +2.20% | -4.35% | 6.5pp | 93% | ❌ |
| Horizon Reclaim (India) GMP ₹55 on issue ₹103 | 19 Jun 2026 | SME | +53.40% | +46.60% | 6.8pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Susan Electricals India GMP ₹54 on issue ₹127 | 18 Jun 2026 | SME | +42.50% | +33.86% | 8.6pp | 91% | ✅ |
| Utkal Speciality Industries India GMP ₹1 on issue ₹66 | 17 Jun 2026 | SME | +0.80% | +0.00% | 0.8pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Q-Line Biotech GMP ₹126 on issue ₹343 | 29 May 2026 | SME | +37.00% | +31.78% | 5.2pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Bio Medica Laboratories GMP ₹2 on issue ₹139 | 29 May 2026 | SME | +1.00% | -20.00% | 21.0pp | 79% | ❌ |
| Vegorama Punjabi Angithi GMP ₹2 on issue ₹77 | 27 May 2026 | SME | +3.00% | +53.38% | 50.4pp | 50% | ✅ |
| NFP Sampoorna Foods GMP ₹8 on issue ₹55 | 25 May 2026 | SME | +15.00% | -0.91% | 15.9pp | 84% | ❌ |
| Goldline Pharmaceutical GMP ₹15 on issue ₹43 | 19 May 2026 | SME | +35.00% | +38.95% | 4.0pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Bagmane Prime Office REIT GMP ₹5 on issue ₹100 | 15 May 2026 | Mainboard | +5.00% | +3.50% | 1.5pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Simca Advertising GMP ₹10 on issue ₹183 | 15 May 2026 | SME | +5.00% | -14.75% | 19.8pp | 80% | ❌ |
| Recode Studios GMP ₹42 on issue ₹158 | 12 May 2026 | SME | +27.00% | +34.87% | 7.9pp | 92% | ✅ |
Mainboard
93% avg accuracy across 11 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 18 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 86% | Mid 90% | High 87%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 29 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 88%.
Should I apply for an IPO based on GMP?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.