GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 46 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
46
Direction Accuracy
80%
Avg GMP Error
₹31
Avg Accuracy
86%
Key findings from 46 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 80% of the time across 46 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 81%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 88% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 86% (46 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (orange) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▼ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madhur Knit Crafts GMP ₹2 on issue ₹100 | 01 Sep 2026 | SME | +2.00% | +0.00% | 2.0pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Skyways Air Services GMP ₹44 on issue ₹138 | 01 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +31.88% | -10.14% | 42.0pp | 58% | ❌ |
| Symbiotec Pharmalab GMP ₹270 on issue ₹988 | 01 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +27.33% | +0.00% | 27.3pp | 73% | ✅ |
| Hy-Tech Engineers GMP ₹45 on issue ₹53 | 01 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +84.91% | +41.51% | 43.4pp | 57% | ✅ |
| Augmont Enterprises GMP ₹315 on issue ₹788 | 31 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +39.97% | +21.95% | 18.0pp | 82% | ✅ |
| Tempsens Instruments (India) Limited GMP ₹313 on issue ₹300 | 28 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +104.33% | +111.33% | 7.0pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Mopshop Distribution GMP ₹1 on issue ₹138 | 26 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.72% | -0.72% | 1.4pp | 99% | ❌ |
| Dhanwel Hybrid Seeds Limited GMP ₹1 on issue ₹99 | 26 Aug 2026 | SME | +1.01% | +0.00% | 1.0pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Gaja Alternative Asset Management GMP ₹19 on issue ₹160 | 26 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +11.88% | +15.63% | 3.8pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Sunshine Pictures GMP ₹80 on issue ₹360 | 25 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +22.22% | +9.97% | 12.3pp | 88% | ✅ |
| Shankesh Jewellers GMP ₹5 on issue ₹93 | 25 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +5.38% | +11.08% | 5.7pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Lalithaa Jewellery Mart GMP ₹54 on issue ₹201 | 24 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +26.87% | +31.84% | 5.0pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Horizon Industrial Parks GMP ₹1 on issue ₹60 | 24 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +2.17% | +0.42% | 1.8pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Technocrats Plasma Systems Limited GMP ₹43 on issue ₹132 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +32.58% | +74.24% | 41.7pp | 58% | ✅ |
| ENS Enterprises GMP ₹4 on issue ₹92 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +4.35% | +4.35% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Skytech Infinite Platform GMP ₹1 on issue ₹77 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +1.30% | -3.90% | 5.2pp | 95% | ❌ |
| Credent Connect N Care Limited GMP ₹45 on issue ₹179 | 20 Aug 2026 | SME | +23.81% | +100.61% | 76.8pp | 23% | ✅ |
| Q&T Foods GMP ₹1 on issue ₹115 | 19 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.87% | +0.00% | 0.9pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Behari Lal Engineering GMP ₹83 on issue ₹285 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +29.12% | +63.16% | 34.0pp | 66% | ✅ |
| Shiprocket GMP ₹34 on issue ₹97 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +35.05% | +35.05% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food Limited GMP ₹26 on issue ₹140 | 18 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +18.57% | +17.86% | 0.7pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Molbio Diagnostics GMP ₹154 on issue ₹807 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +19.08% | +21.44% | 2.4pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Dhoot Transmission Limited GMP ₹276 on issue ₹871 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +31.69% | +37.77% | 6.1pp | 94% | ✅ |
| G.V.Electricals GMP ₹26 on issue ₹130 | 12 Aug 2026 | SME | +20.00% | +21.54% | 1.5pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Ardee Industries GMP ₹15 on issue ₹53 | 12 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +28.30% | +35.85% | 7.5pp | 92% | ✅ |
Mainboard
88% avg accuracy across 21 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 25 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 90% | Mid 85% | High 81%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 46 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 80% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 86%.
Should I apply for an IPO based on GMP?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.