GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 12 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
12
Direction Accuracy
67%
Avg GMP Error
₹17
Avg Accuracy
86%
Key findings from 12 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 67% of the time across 12 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is LESS accurate than high GMP (>30%): 89% vs 95%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 96% vs 82%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 86% (12 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (orange) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▼ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bio Medica Laboratories GMP ₹2 on issue ₹139 | 29 May 2026 | SME | +1.00% | -20.00% | 21.0pp | 79% | ❌ |
| Q-Line Biotech GMP ₹126 on issue ₹343 | 29 May 2026 | SME | +37.00% | +31.78% | 5.2pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Vegorama Punjabi Angithi GMP ₹2 on issue ₹77 | 27 May 2026 | SME | +3.00% | +53.38% | 50.4pp | 50% | ✅ |
| NFP Sampoorna Foods GMP ₹8 on issue ₹55 | 25 May 2026 | SME | +15.00% | -0.91% | 15.9pp | 84% | ❌ |
| Goldline Pharmaceutical GMP ₹15 on issue ₹43 | 19 May 2026 | SME | +35.00% | +38.95% | 4.0pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Simca Advertising GMP ₹10 on issue ₹183 | 15 May 2026 | SME | +5.00% | -14.75% | 19.8pp | 80% | ❌ |
| Bagmane Prime Office REIT GMP ₹5 on issue ₹100 | 15 May 2026 | Mainboard | +5.00% | +3.50% | 1.5pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Recode Studios GMP ₹42 on issue ₹158 | 12 May 2026 | SME | +27.00% | +34.87% | 7.9pp | 92% | ✅ |
| Value 360 Communications GMP ₹7 on issue ₹98 | 11 May 2026 | SME | +7.00% | -20.00% | 27.0pp | 73% | ❌ |
| OnEMI Technology Solutions (KISSHT) GMP ₹10 on issue ₹171 | 08 May 2026 | Mainboard | +6.00% | +11.11% | 5.1pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Adisoft Technologies GMP ₹18 on issue ₹172 | 30 Apr 2026 | SME | +10.00% | +19.19% | 9.2pp | 91% | ✅ |
| Om Power Transmission Limited GMP ₹2 on issue ₹175 | 17 Apr 2026 | Mainboard | +1.14% | +6.29% | 5.2pp | 95% | ✅ |
Mainboard
96% avg accuracy across 3 IPOs
SME
82% avg accuracy across 9 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 81% | Mid 89% | High 95%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 12 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 67% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 86%.
Should I apply for an IPO based on GMP?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.