GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▲ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madhur Knit Crafts GMP ₹2 on issue ₹100 | 01 Sep 2026 | SME | +2.00% | +0.00% | 2.0pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Hy-Tech Engineers GMP ₹45 on issue ₹53 | 01 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +84.91% | +41.51% | 43.4pp | 57% | ✅ |
| Annu Projects GMP ₹1 on issue ₹99 | 02 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +1.01% | -27.27% | 28.3pp | 72% | ❌ |
| Sumax Engineering GMP ₹36 on issue ₹101 | 02 Sep 2026 | SME | +35.64% | +9.90% | 25.7pp | 74% | ✅ |
| Lumino Industries GMP ₹48 on issue ₹82 | 03 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +58.54% | +34.15% | 24.4pp | 76% | ✅ |
| Kwick Forensic Solutions GMP ₹85 on issue ₹90 | 03 Sep 2026 | SME | +94.44% | +66.67% | 27.8pp | 72% | ✅ |
| Priority Jewels GMP ₹31 on issue ₹200 | 04 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +15.50% | +15.00% | 0.5pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Paluck Technologies GMP ₹20 on issue ₹48 | 04 Sep 2026 | SME | +41.67% | -2.50% | 44.2pp | 56% | ❌ |
| ESDS Software Solution GMP ₹255 on issue ₹429 | 04 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +59.44% | +76.46% | 17.0pp | 83% | ✅ |
| Phychem Technologies GMP ₹1 on issue ₹54 | 07 Sep 2026 | SME | +1.85% | +3.70% | 1.9pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Shanti Inorganics GMP ₹13 on issue ₹83 | 07 Sep 2026 | SME | +15.66% | +90.00% | 74.3pp | 26% | ✅ |
| Purple Style Labs GMP ₹2 on issue ₹575 | 07 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +0.26% | -6.96% | 7.2pp | 93% | ❌ |
| Ashutosh Fibre GMP ₹33 on issue ₹92 | 07 Sep 2026 | SME | +35.87% | +52.17% | 16.3pp | 84% | ✅ |
| Farm Peace GMP ₹3 on issue ₹59 | 08 Sep 2026 | SME | +5.08% | +90.00% | 84.9pp | 15% | ✅ |
| Fly-Hi Maritime Travels GMP ₹1 on issue ₹102 | 08 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.98% | -20.00% | 21.0pp | 79% | ❌ |
| Deepa Jewellers GMP ₹18 on issue ₹177 | 08 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +10.17% | +24.86% | 14.7pp | 85% | ✅ |
| Rays of Belief GMP ₹12 on issue ₹239 | 08 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +5.02% | +0.00% | 5.0pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Qualiance International GMP ₹65 on issue ₹127 | 11 Sep 2026 | SME | +51.18% | +77.09% | 25.9pp | 74% | ✅ |
| Pranav Constructions GMP ₹40 on issue ₹124 | 15 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +32.26% | +33.06% | 0.8pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Apana Logistics GMP ₹1 on issue ₹60 | 15 Sep 2026 | SME | +1.67% | +0.00% | 1.7pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Kanohar Electricals GMP ₹240 on issue ₹632 | 16 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +37.97% | +8.47% | 29.5pp | 71% | ✅ |
| Glass Wall Systems (India) GMP ₹45 on issue ₹182 | 16 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +24.73% | +6.59% | 18.1pp | 82% | ✅ |
| Prasol Chemicals GMP ₹4 on issue ₹676 | 16 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +0.59% | -9.76% | 10.3pp | 90% | ❌ |
| Asset Reconstruction Co.(India) GMP ₹15 on issue ₹139 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +10.43% | +0.00% | 10.4pp | 90% | ✅ |
| LCC Projects GMP ₹78 on issue ₹146 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +53.42% | +29.45% | 24.0pp | 76% | ✅ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.