GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▼ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonaselection India GMP ₹2 on issue ₹99 | 24 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +2.02% | +3.34% | 1.3pp | 99% | ✅ |
| SpectraA Technology Solutions GMP ₹67 on issue ₹118 | 24 Sep 2026 | SME | +56.78% | +90.00% | 33.2pp | 67% | ✅ |
| Kheria Autocomp GMP ₹3 on issue ₹101 | 24 Sep 2026 | SME | +2.97% | +3.86% | 0.9pp | 99% | ✅ |
| SS Retail GMP ₹145 on issue ₹424 | 23 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +34.20% | +47.17% | 13.0pp | 87% | ✅ |
| Hero Motors GMP ₹1 on issue ₹84 | 23 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +1.19% | -2.38% | 3.6pp | 96% | ❌ |
| Jindal Supreme (India) GMP ₹27 on issue ₹93 | 23 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +28.49% | +29.03% | 0.5pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Quanto Agroworld GMP ₹2 on issue ₹67 | 22 Sep 2026 | SME | +2.99% | -0.01% | 3.0pp | 97% | ❌ |
| Vama Wovenfab GMP ₹3 on issue ₹341 | 22 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.88% | +0.00% | 0.9pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Shakti Polytarp GMP ₹10 on issue ₹59 | 22 Sep 2026 | SME | +16.95% | -0.17% | 17.1pp | 83% | ❌ |
| Manika Plastech GMP ₹2 on issue ₹43 | 21 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +4.65% | +0.00% | 4.7pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Raksan Transformers GMP ₹50 on issue ₹273 | 18 Sep 2026 | SME | +18.32% | +0.00% | 18.3pp | 82% | ✅ |
| Veegaland Developers GMP ₹10 on issue ₹140 | 18 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +7.14% | +10.00% | 2.9pp | 97% | ✅ |
| Panchatv Bharat GMP ₹3 on issue ₹140 | 18 Sep 2026 | SME | +2.14% | -7.89% | 10.0pp | 90% | ❌ |
| Maharaja & Speedex India GMP ₹28 on issue ₹186 | 18 Sep 2026 | SME | +15.05% | +34.41% | 19.4pp | 81% | ✅ |
| Amtech Esters GMP ₹7 on issue ₹75 | 17 Sep 2026 | SME | +9.33% | +33.33% | 24.0pp | 76% | ✅ |
| Karamtara Engineering GMP ₹67 on issue ₹254 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +26.38% | +25.98% | 0.4pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Steamhouse India GMP ₹21 on issue ₹81 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +25.93% | +16.67% | 9.3pp | 91% | ✅ |
| Asset Reconstruction Co.(India) GMP ₹15 on issue ₹139 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +10.43% | +0.00% | 10.4pp | 90% | ✅ |
| Rentomojo GMP ₹148 on issue ₹404 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +36.63% | +19.42% | 17.2pp | 83% | ✅ |
| Vinod Texworld GMP ₹1 on issue ₹94 | 17 Sep 2026 | SME | +1.06% | +0.00% | 1.1pp | 99% | ✅ |
| LCC Projects GMP ₹78 on issue ₹146 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +53.42% | +29.45% | 24.0pp | 76% | ✅ |
| Manipal Payment & Identity Solutions GMP ₹1 on issue ₹339 | 17 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +0.29% | -2.65% | 2.9pp | 97% | ❌ |
| Prasol Chemicals GMP ₹4 on issue ₹676 | 16 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +0.59% | -9.76% | 10.3pp | 90% | ❌ |
| Kanohar Electricals GMP ₹240 on issue ₹632 | 16 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +37.97% | +8.47% | 29.5pp | 71% | ✅ |
| Glass Wall Systems (India) GMP ₹45 on issue ₹182 | 16 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +24.73% | +6.59% | 18.1pp | 82% | ✅ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.