GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▲ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varmora Granito GMP ₹1 on issue ₹148 | 29 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +0.68% | +4.73% | 4.0pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Anand Seamless GMP ₹0 on issue ₹72 | 29 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +0.14% | 0.1pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Unitec Fibres GMP ₹0 on issue ₹88 | 30 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +2.27% | 2.3pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Adroit Industries (India) GMP ₹55 on issue ₹134 | 30 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +41.04% | +75.37% | 34.3pp | 66% | ✅ |
| Coreintegra Consulting Services GMP ₹0 on issue ₹78 | 30 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +0.13% | 0.1pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Swastika Infra GMP ₹7 on issue ₹185 | 30 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +3.78% | +8.11% | 4.3pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Pooja Logistics GMP ₹0 on issue ₹115 | 30 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +2.61% | 2.6pp | 97% | ✅ |
| Liqvd Digital India GMP ₹0 on issue ₹54 | 30 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.00% | -0.50% | 0.5pp | 100% | ❌ |
| S.K.Offset GMP ₹0 on issue ₹125 | 30 Sep 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +0.80% | 0.8pp | 99% | ✅ |
| ArMee Infotech GMP ₹6 on issue ₹375 | 30 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +1.60% | +0.00% | 1.6pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Elevate Campuses GMP ₹7 on issue ₹362 | 30 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +1.80% | -1.91% | 3.7pp | 96% | ❌ |
| Peshwa Wheat GMP ₹0 on issue ₹101 | 01 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | -0.94% | 0.9pp | 99% | ❌ |
| A-One Steels India GMP ₹47 on issue ₹405 | 01 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +11.60% | +12.35% | 0.8pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Roopa Screen GMP ₹42 on issue ₹64 | 01 Oct 2026 | SME | +65.62% | +90.00% | 24.4pp | 76% | ✅ |
| Moneyview GMP ₹15 on issue ₹34 | 01 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +42.94% | +61.76% | 18.8pp | 81% | ✅ |
| Sai Urja Indo Ventures GMP ₹32 on issue ₹113 | 05 Oct 2026 | SME | +28.32% | +18.41% | 9.9pp | 90% | ✅ |
| Runwal Enterprises GMP ₹0 on issue ₹305 | 05 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Himalayan Solar GMP ₹0 on issue ₹103 | 05 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | -17.48% | 17.5pp | 83% | ❌ |
| Acevector GMP ₹1 on issue ₹32 | 05 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +3.12% | -11.50% | 14.6pp | 85% | ❌ |
| Orient Cables (India) GMP ₹121 on issue ₹272 | 05 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +44.49% | +65.44% | 20.9pp | 79% | ✅ |
| Dudani Retail GMP ₹1 on issue ₹29 | 05 Oct 2026 | SME | +1.72% | -13.79% | 15.5pp | 84% | ❌ |
| German Green Steel & Power GMP ₹10 on issue ₹139 | 05 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +6.83% | +2.16% | 4.7pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Bench Mark Infotech Services GMP ₹25 on issue ₹110 | 05 Oct 2026 | SME | +22.73% | +0.00% | 22.7pp | 77% | ✅ |
| Shah Investor's Home GMP ₹17 on issue ₹167 | 06 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +10.18% | +2.40% | 7.8pp | 92% | ✅ |
| Acme Universal Safezone 9 GMP ₹15 on issue ₹71 | 06 Oct 2026 | SME | +21.13% | +42.25% | 21.1pp | 79% | ✅ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.