GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▲ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knack packaging GMP ₹27 on issue ₹170 | 08 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +15.60% | +9.41% | 6.2pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Kusumgar GMP ₹165 on issue ₹419 | 15 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +39.40% | +36.99% | 2.4pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Laser Power & Infra GMP ₹41 on issue ₹214 | 16 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +18.90% | +25.70% | 6.8pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Devson Catalyst GMP ₹49 on issue ₹118 | 16 Jul 2026 | SME | +41.50% | +66.23% | 24.7pp | 75% | ✅ |
| SBI Funds Management GMP ₹97 on issue ₹574 | 21 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +16.90% | +6.85% | 10.1pp | 90% | ✅ |
| Alpine Texworld GMP ₹1 on issue ₹105 | 21 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +1.00% | +0.00% | 1.0pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Millworks Technologies GMP ₹380 on issue ₹331 | 21 Jul 2026 | SME | +114.80% | +90.00% | 24.8pp | 75% | ✅ |
| Sotefin Bharat GMP ₹1 on issue ₹187 | 23 Jul 2026 | SME | +0.50% | +9.63% | 9.1pp | 91% | ✅ |
| Caliber Mining & Logistics GMP ₹71 on issue ₹424 | 24 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +16.70% | +17.98% | 1.3pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Gulf Lloyds (India) GMP ₹1 on issue ₹100 | 27 Jul 2026 | SME | +1.00% | +0.00% | 1.0pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Shree Balaji (Mala) Textiles GMP ₹13 on issue ₹70 | 29 Jul 2026 | SME | +18.60% | +90.00% | 71.4pp | 29% | ✅ |
| Xtranet Technologies GMP ₹7 on issue ₹127 | 30 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +5.50% | +7.09% | 1.6pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Lohia Corp GMP ₹12 on issue ₹425 | 30 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +2.70% | +8.47% | 5.8pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Indo-MIM GMP ₹190 on issue ₹485 | 30 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +39.20% | +44.33% | 5.1pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Advance Technoforge GMP ₹8 on issue ₹95 | 03 Aug 2026 | SME | +8.40% | -1.05% | 9.4pp | 91% | ❌ |
| Poojaa Precision Engg GMP ₹225 on issue ₹301 | 04 Aug 2026 | SME | +74.80% | +56.15% | 18.6pp | 81% | ✅ |
| H. R. HYGIENE PRODUCTS GMP ₹2 on issue ₹88 | 05 Aug 2026 | SME | +2.30% | +2.27% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Manipal Health Enterprises GMP ₹-15 on issue ₹590 | 05 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | -2.50% | +10.51% | 13.0pp | 87% | ❌ |
| Juniper Green Energy GMP ₹10 on issue ₹225 | 06 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +4.22% | +8.89% | 4.7pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Dhaval Packaging GMP ₹8 on issue ₹97 | 06 Aug 2026 | SME | +8.25% | +13.40% | 5.2pp | 95% | ✅ |
| MV Electrosystems GMP ₹100 on issue ₹425 | 06 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +23.53% | +22.35% | 1.2pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Fusion Klassroom Edutech GMP ₹4 on issue ₹159 | 07 Aug 2026 | SME | +2.52% | +6.92% | 4.4pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Aegeus Technologies GMP ₹12 on issue ₹105 | 11 Aug 2026 | SME | +11.43% | +18.57% | 7.1pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Ardee Industries GMP ₹15 on issue ₹53 | 12 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +28.30% | +35.85% | 7.5pp | 92% | ✅ |
| G.V.Electricals GMP ₹26 on issue ₹130 | 12 Aug 2026 | SME | +20.00% | +21.54% | 1.5pp | 98% | ✅ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.