GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▲ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRIT India GMP ₹61 on issue ₹130 | 06 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +46.92% | +13.85% | 33.1pp | 67% | ✅ |
| Pind Hospitality GMP ₹1 on issue ₹99 | 06 Oct 2026 | SME | +1.01% | -20.00% | 21.0pp | 79% | ❌ |
| Shivchem Agro GMP ₹2 on issue ₹62 | 06 Oct 2026 | SME | +2.42% | +0.00% | 2.4pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Black Opal Consultants GMP ₹60 on issue ₹197 | 07 Oct 2026 | SME | +30.46% | +1.52% | 28.9pp | 71% | ✅ |
| Vans Electroengineerings GMP ₹103 on issue ₹118 | 07 Oct 2026 | SME | +87.29% | +90.00% | 2.7pp | 97% | ✅ |
| Papadmalji Agro Foods GMP ₹0 on issue ₹72 | 07 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +0.42% | 0.4pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Green Asia Impex GMP ₹0 on issue ₹89 | 07 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Shree TNB Polymers GMP ₹0 on issue ₹53 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +13.21% | 13.2pp | 87% | ✅ |
| Dove Soft GMP ₹0 on issue ₹111 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | -0.63% | 0.6pp | 99% | ❌ |
| Nityas Gems & Jewellery GMP ₹1 on issue ₹75 | 08 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +1.33% | +6.67% | 5.3pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Omara Ventures India GMP ₹0 on issue ₹311 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +2.57% | 2.6pp | 97% | ✅ |
| SJP Ultrasonics GMP ₹0 on issue ₹67 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +10.75% | 10.8pp | 89% | ✅ |
| EverestIMS Technologies GMP ₹50 on issue ₹85 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +58.82% | +48.24% | 10.6pp | 89% | ✅ |
| Vishal Nirmiti GMP ₹2 on issue ₹220 | 08 Oct 2026 | Mainboard | +0.91% | -2.27% | 3.2pp | 97% | ❌ |
| Eventions GMP ₹0 on issue ₹118 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | -5.93% | 5.9pp | 94% | ❌ |
| Sollfege Smart Electronics GMP ₹0 on issue ₹55 | 08 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | +89.82% | 89.8pp | 10% | ✅ |
| Paramount Syntex GMP ₹0 on issue ₹127 | 09 Oct 2026 | SME | +0.00% | -9.45% | 9.4pp | 91% | ❌ |
| TNA Solutions GMP ₹3 on issue ₹70 | 09 Oct 2026 | SME | +4.29% | -20.00% | 24.3pp | 76% | ❌ |
| Acme India Industries GMP ₹65 on issue ₹196 | 09 Oct 2026 | SME | +33.16% | +12.76% | 20.4pp | 80% | ✅ |
| R.K.Fashion Accessories GMP ₹2 on issue ₹82 | 12 Oct 2026 | SME | +1.83% | -2.44% | 4.3pp | 96% | ❌ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.