By ipomarket.in Editorial Team · Last reviewed: 2026-09-22
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. IPO investments are subject to market risks. Please read the offer document carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before investing.
Open any popular IPO review video and scroll the comments. You will see one viewer swearing the issue is a sure-shot listing pop, and right below it, another calling it overpriced garbage. Meanwhile, one brokerage report tags the same IPO "Apply" while a second tags it "Avoid". For a first-time retail investor, this looks like the market cannot make up its mind.
Most of the time, it is not confusion. It is disagreement, and disagreement is normal. The problem is not that opinions differ. The problem is when you treat an anonymous comment as equal in weight to a SEBI-registered analyst's report, or when you outsource a decision entirely to whoever shouted loudest. This piece explains why IPO calls conflict, how the standard rating system works, and how to triangulate signals instead of picking a side at random.
The standard IPO rating system in India
Most Indian IPO research houses use a four-level rating scale rather than a simple yes/no:
- Apply — the analyst views the issue favourably on valuation and fundamentals.
- May Apply (sometimes "Subscribe for listing gains" or "Apply for long term") — a conditional positive, often flagging that the call depends on your holding horizon or risk appetite.
- Neutral — no strong view either way.
- Avoid — the analyst does not find the risk-reward attractive.
Providers such as Capital Market, ICICI Securities, Nirmal Bang, Motilal Oswal, HEM Securities, Ventura, Reliance Securities, Angel One and Aditya Birla Money publish these reviews covering company background, financials, valuation and risks. Aggregators like Chittorgarh collect several of these ratings in one place so you can see the spread at a glance.
The existence of a "May Apply" bucket tells you something important on its own: even the professionals build in conditionality. A recommendation is rarely a binary verdict.
Why two credible analysts land on opposite calls
When a well-regarded research desk says Apply and another equally credible one says Avoid on the same IPO, it usually comes down to a few honest differences.
Different valuation methods. One analyst may value the company on forward earnings, another on price-to-sales because the firm is loss-making. Same company, different lens, different conclusion.
Different time horizons. A call built around listing-day gains and a call built around a three-to-five year hold are answering different questions. An IPO can be attractive for a flip and unattractive to own for years, or the reverse.
Different risk appetite. A conservative desk may weigh a governance concern or customer concentration heavily, while a growth-focused desk may accept it in exchange for the growth story.
Sector expertise. An analyst who covers the sector deeply may spot a red flag, or a hidden strength, that a generalist misses.
None of this is manipulation. It is the same debate that happens with any listed stock, just compressed into the few days an IPO is open. If you want a structured way to form your own view, our 10-step framework for analysing an upcoming IPO walks through the same inputs the pros use.
Where the real risk sits: unverified social media
A SEBI-registered analyst operates under rules. Independent research analysts and their staff, for instance, are restricted from trading in a security they cover — the framework limits trading in a 30-day window before and a 5-day window after a report is published — and they must disclose conflicts of interest. That does not make them always right. It does mean there is accountability, a disclosed methodology, and a regulator to complain to.
An anonymous YouTube comment, a forwarded Telegram tip or a viral X post has none of that. There is no methodology, no disclosure, no accountability, and often no way to know whether the person is talking their own book. Treating that commentary as equivalent to institutional research is the actual danger here — far more than two brokerages disagreeing.
Grey market premium (GMP) sits in a grey zone of its own. A strong GMP can be a useful sentiment signal, but it is unofficial, unregulated and volatile, and it is not a substitute for looking at the business. We explain what it does and does not tell you in what is IPO GMP and how it works.
How to triangulate instead of pick a side
The goal is not to find the one "correct" analyst. It is to build your own view using several independent inputs. A practical approach:
1. Read the offer document yourself
At a minimum, read the business overview, the risk factors and the objects of the issue in the DRHP or RHP. This is the single most valuable thing you can do and it takes an hour, not a day. If you have never done it, our guide to reading a DRHP breaks it down section by section. SEBI has also been pushing for a standardised, plain-language offer document summary for retail investors, which should make this easier over time.
2. Compare ratings across regulated providers
Look at the spread of Apply/Avoid calls, not just one. If most credible desks lean one way and a couple dissent, read why the dissenters dissent. The disagreement often reveals the single most important risk in the issue.
3. Check anchor and QIB participation
Strong anchor investor participation from credible domestic mutual funds and foreign portfolio investors signals that institutions did meaningful due diligence. Healthy qualified institutional buyer (QIB) demand generally carries more weight than heavy retail oversubscription alone. To understand these buckets, see QIB, NII and retail categories explained.
4. Assess valuation against listed peers
Ask whether the price band looks reasonable next to comparable listed companies on earnings or sales multiples. If every analyst who says Avoid cites valuation, that is a signal worth respecting regardless of the hype.
5. Separate the flip from the hold
Decide which question you are actually asking. Listing-gain calls and long-term calls are different, and conflating them is how retail investors get whipsawed.
Green flags and red flags, briefly
Without turning this into a checklist, a few patterns tend to matter. On the green side: credible anchors, strong institutional demand, a clear and sensible use of proceeds, and a valuation in line with peers. On the red side: proceeds going largely to an offer for sale by existing shareholders with little fresh capital for the business, heavy customer or client concentration, recent losses with no clear path to profit, and a price that only makes sense if you assume everything goes right.
A conflicting set of ratings usually maps onto exactly these tensions. The Apply camp is weighting the green flags; the Avoid camp is weighting the red ones. Once you see which flags each side is emphasising, the "conflict" turns into useful information.
Context: this is a crowded market
India has averaged more than 100 IPOs a year over the last decade, and CY 2025 alone saw a reported 373 IPOs across the mainboard and SME segments. With that volume, review content and social commentary have exploded. The average listing gain in 2025 was reported around 9%, with roughly two-thirds of companies listing above their issue price — which also means a meaningful share did not. High activity does not mean high certainty, and it certainly does not mean every noisy comment is worth reading.
FAQ
One brokerage says Apply and another says Avoid on the same IPO. Who is right?
Potentially both, for different investors. They may be using different valuation methods, time horizons or risk tolerances. Read why each side takes its view rather than counting votes. The reasons behind an Avoid call often point to the single biggest risk in the issue.
Are YouTube comments and Telegram tips a reliable way to judge an IPO?
No. Anonymous social media commentary carries no disclosed methodology, no accountability and no regulatory oversight. It is not comparable to a SEBI-registered analyst report. Use it, at most, to spot questions worth researching yourself, never as a decision on its own.
Does a high GMP mean an IPO is a good investment?
Not by itself. GMP is an unofficial, unregulated sentiment indicator that can swing sharply and is not a substitute for fundamental analysis. Treat it as one weak signal among many, not as a verdict.
How can I form my own view without being an expert?
Read the risk factors, objects of the issue and business overview in the offer document; compare valuation to listed peers; check anchor and QIB participation; and read the spread of analyst ratings rather than one. Doing these four things puts you ahead of most retail applicants.
Do SEBI rules stop analysts from being biased?
They reduce certain conflicts. Research analysts face trading restrictions around report publication and must disclose conflicts of interest. That creates accountability, but it does not guarantee any single call is correct, which is exactly why triangulating across sources matters.
Last reviewed: 2026-09-22. Figures on IPO counts and listing gains are drawn from research notes and should be verified against primary sources before relying on them.