By ipomarket.in Editorial Team · Last reviewed: 2026-10-18
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. IPO investments are subject to market risks. Please read the offer document carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before investing.
Grey market premium, or GMP, is the first number most retail investors check before an IPO lists. It is the price at which an IPO's shares change hands unofficially before they start trading on the exchanges, and a high GMP is often read as a promise of quick listing-day profits. The problem is that the number carries far less predictive power than its popularity suggests, and 2025's data makes that plain.
What the 2025 numbers actually show
In 2025, India's primary market was busy. A total of 101 mainboard IPOs raised ₹1,74,379 crore. By the sheer scale, it looked like a banner year for anyone chasing listing gains.
Then comes the uncomfortable figure. Nearly 55% of those IPOs, or 56 out of 101, debuted below their grey market price. More than half of the companies that the grey market had priced at a premium actually opened lower than that implied level. For investors who treated GMP as a floor, that is a large miss.
The broader listing picture was softer too. In 2025, the average first-day IPO gain fell to 9%, down from 30% the year before, and 29 of 83 mainboard IPOs ended their debut sessions in the red. A market that produced thinner gains overall was always going to expose the gap between grey market sentiment and real demand.
GMP is a sentiment gauge, not a forecast
It helps to be clear about what GMP is. It is unregulated and largely sentiment-driven, which makes it an unreliable gauge of post-listing performance. No exchange publishes it, no regulator oversees it, and the quotes come from informal dealers whose numbers can move on rumour, demand for the application, or simply the mood of a given day. If you want the mechanics, our explainer on what is IPO GMP and how does it work covers the ground.
That does not mean GMP is useless. One analysis of Indian mainboard IPOs found that GMP predicted the listing direction correctly in 74% of cases. In other words, it usually gets the sign right. If GMP is strongly positive, the stock more often than not lists up; if it collapses, the stock often struggles.
The catch is magnitude. The same analysis found the average gap between the GMP-implied listing gain and the actual listing gain was ±12.5 percentage points. So GMP can tell you roughly which way a stock might move, but the size of the move it implies can be off by a wide margin in either direction. A GMP suggesting a 30% pop can easily translate into a 12% gain, or a 45% one.
Recent examples that break the pattern
The current crop of IPO data on our GMP tracker shows how loose the link can be.
Acme India Industries listed on October 9, 2026 with a final GMP implying a 33.16% gain. The actual listing gain was 12.76%, less than half the implied figure. R.K.Fashion Accessories listed on October 12, 2026 with a GMP of just 1.83%, then fell 2.44% on its debut, flipping from a thin premium to a loss.
The reverse happens as well. Vans Electroengineering had a GMP of ₹0 going into its October 7, 2026 listing, yet the stock closed its debut up 90%. The grey market saw nothing coming.
From late 2025, Lenskart Solutions is often cited as a cautionary case. Its GMP reportedly ranged from ₹55 to ₹120 but dropped to zero before listing, and the stock reportedly opened at a 1.7% to 3% discount, according to grey market trackers. We flag this as a reported figure rather than an official data point.
Where GMP sits today
Among currently tracked issues, the spread of GMP is wide. Jio Platforms carried a GMP of ₹221 as of October 16–17, 2026, implying a 19.75% estimated listing gain over its upper price band of ₹1,119. Bonfiglioli Transmissions showed a GMP of ₹130–₹135 as of October 17, 2026, implying a 22–23% estimated gain over its upper band of ₹586. The highest on the board was Tonbo Imaging India, with a GMP of ₹505–₹525 as of October 17, 2026, implying a 72–74% estimated listing gain.
Those are large implied numbers. The 2025 record is the reminder that implied is not the same as realised. More than half of last year's premiums did not survive contact with the opening bell.
How to read GMP sensibly
Treat GMP as one input among several, not as a verdict. Its usefulness is in the direction and the trend, especially how it moves across the subscription window, rather than the precise percentage it suggests. Pair it with the actual demand picture, which you can read in our guide to IPO subscription status across QIB, NII and retail, and with the fundamentals in the offer document. Our walkthrough on how to read a DRHP is a better foundation for a holding decision than any grey market quote.
The honest summary from the 2025 data: GMP is right about direction most of the time and routinely wrong about size. For a retail investor, that is a signal to check, not a plan to follow.
FAQ
How often is GMP correct?
One analysis of Indian mainboard IPOs found GMP predicted the listing direction correctly in 74% of cases. But the average gap between the GMP-implied gain and the actual gain was ±12.5 percentage points, so it is far less accurate about the size of the move.
What percentage of IPOs listed below their GMP in 2025?
Nearly 55% of 2025's mainboard IPOs, or 56 out of 101, debuted below their grey market price. That is the clearest evidence that a positive GMP is not a guarantee of listing-day profit.
Can a stock with zero GMP still list higher?
Yes. Vans Electroengineering had a GMP of ₹0 but closed its debut on October 7, 2026 up 90%. GMP can completely miss demand that only shows up once trading starts.
Is GMP regulated?
No. GMP is unregulated and largely sentiment-driven. No exchange or regulator publishes or oversees it, which is why it is an unreliable gauge of post-listing performance.
Why did the average listing gain fall in 2025?
The average first-day gain fell to 9% in 2025 from 30% a year earlier, and 29 of 83 mainboard IPOs ended their debut sessions in the red. Weaker overall demand exposed the gap between grey market hype and real listing performance.
Last reviewed: 2026-10-18 by the ipomarket.in Editorial Team.