GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 41 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
41
Direction Accuracy
78%
Avg GMP Error
₹26
Avg Accuracy
85%
Key findings from 41 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 78% of the time across 41 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 86% vs 77%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 89% vs 83%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 85% (41 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (orange) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▼ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyways Air Services GMP ₹42 on issue ₹138 | 01 Sep 2026 | Mainboard | +30.43% | -60.14% | 90.6pp | 9% | ❌ |
| Gaja Alternative Asset Management GMP ₹19 on issue ₹160 | 26 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +11.88% | +15.63% | 3.8pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Dhanwel Hybrid Seeds GMP ₹1 on issue ₹99 | 26 Aug 2026 | SME | +1.01% | +0.00% | 1.0pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Mopshop Distribution GMP ₹1 on issue ₹138 | 26 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.72% | -0.72% | 1.4pp | 99% | ❌ |
| Sunshine Pictures GMP ₹80 on issue ₹360 | 25 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +22.22% | +9.97% | 12.3pp | 88% | ✅ |
| Shankesh Jewellers GMP ₹5 on issue ₹93 | 25 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +5.38% | +11.08% | 5.7pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Horizon Industrial Parks GMP ₹1 on issue ₹60 | 24 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +2.17% | +0.42% | 1.8pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Lalithaa Jewellery Mart GMP ₹54 on issue ₹201 | 24 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +26.87% | +31.84% | 5.0pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Skytech Infinite Platform GMP ₹1 on issue ₹77 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +1.30% | -3.90% | 5.2pp | 95% | ❌ |
| ENS Enterprises GMP ₹4 on issue ₹92 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +4.35% | +4.35% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Technocrats Plasma Systems Limited GMP ₹43 on issue ₹132 | 21 Aug 2026 | SME | +32.58% | +74.24% | 41.7pp | 58% | ✅ |
| Credent Connect N Care Limited GMP ₹45 on issue ₹179 | 20 Aug 2026 | SME | +23.81% | +100.61% | 76.8pp | 23% | ✅ |
| Behari Lal Engineering GMP ₹83 on issue ₹285 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +29.12% | +63.16% | 34.0pp | 66% | ✅ |
| Shiprocket GMP ₹34 on issue ₹97 | 19 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +35.05% | +35.05% | 0.0pp | 100% | ✅ |
| Q&T Foods GMP ₹1 on issue ₹115 | 19 Aug 2026 | SME | +0.87% | +0.00% | 0.9pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food Limited GMP ₹26 on issue ₹140 | 18 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +18.57% | +17.86% | 0.7pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Molbio Diagnostics GMP ₹154 on issue ₹807 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +19.08% | +21.44% | 2.4pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Dhoot Transmission Limited GMP ₹276 on issue ₹871 | 17 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +31.69% | +37.77% | 6.1pp | 94% | ✅ |
| Ardee Industries GMP ₹15 on issue ₹53 | 12 Aug 2026 | Mainboard | +28.30% | +35.85% | 7.5pp | 92% | ✅ |
| G.V.Electricals GMP ₹26 on issue ₹130 | 12 Aug 2026 | SME | +20.00% | +21.54% | 1.5pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Aegeus Technologies GMP ₹12 on issue ₹105 | 11 Aug 2026 | SME | +11.43% | +18.57% | 7.1pp | 93% | ✅ |
| SBI Funds Management GMP ₹97 on issue ₹574 | 21 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +16.90% | +6.85% | 10.1pp | 90% | ✅ |
| Advit Jewels GMP ₹46 on issue ₹138 | 01 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +33.30% | +36.88% | 3.6pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Avience Biomedicals Limited GMP ₹72 on issue ₹196 | 25 Jun 2026 | SME | +34.60% | +101.63% | 67.0pp | 33% | ✅ |
| Leapfrog Engineering Services GMP ₹1 on issue ₹23 | 24 Jun 2026 | SME | +2.20% | -4.35% | 6.5pp | 93% | ❌ |
Mainboard
89% avg accuracy across 17 IPOs
SME
83% avg accuracy across 24 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 90% | Mid 86% | High 77%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 41 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 78% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 85%.
Should I apply for an IPO based on GMP?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.