GMP Accuracy Tracker
How accurate is Grey Market Premium as a predictor of IPO listing price? Data from 170 listed IPOs with recorded GMP.
IPOs Tracked
170
Direction Accuracy
79%
Avg GMP Error
₹23
Avg Accuracy
87%
Key findings from 170 IPOs
- Direction calls: GMP correctly predicted listing direction (gain vs loss) 79% of the time across 170 IPOs.
- Moderate vs high GMP: Moderate GMP (10-30%) is MORE accurate than high GMP (>30%): 85% vs 80%.
- Mainboard vs SME: Mainboard GMP is more reliable than SME: 90% vs 84%.
- Best year: Best accuracy year so far: 2026 at 87% (170 IPOs).
Does higher GMP mean more accurate prediction?
Average accuracy by GMP magnitude bucket.
GMP reliability over time
Direction accuracy (amber) and avg price accuracy (blue) per listing year.
Need at least two listing years of GMP data to show a trend.
| IPO | Listing Date▲ | Type | GMP % | Actual Gain % | Diff | Accuracy | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Om Power Transmission Limited GMP ₹2 on issue ₹175 | 17 Apr 2026 | Mainboard | +1.14% | +6.29% | 5.2pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Mehul Telecom GMP ₹4 on issue ₹98 | 24 Apr 2026 | SME | +3.57% | +10.20% | 6.6pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Adisoft Technologies GMP ₹18 on issue ₹172 | 30 Apr 2026 | SME | +10.00% | +19.19% | 9.2pp | 91% | ✅ |
| OnEMI Technology Solutions (KISSHT) GMP ₹10 on issue ₹171 | 08 May 2026 | Mainboard | +6.00% | +11.11% | 5.1pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Value 360 Communications GMP ₹7 on issue ₹98 | 11 May 2026 | SME | +7.00% | -20.00% | 27.0pp | 73% | ❌ |
| Recode Studios GMP ₹42 on issue ₹158 | 12 May 2026 | SME | +27.00% | +34.87% | 7.9pp | 92% | ✅ |
| Simca Advertising GMP ₹10 on issue ₹183 | 15 May 2026 | SME | +5.00% | -14.75% | 19.8pp | 80% | ❌ |
| Bagmane Prime Office REIT GMP ₹5 on issue ₹100 | 15 May 2026 | Mainboard | +5.00% | +3.50% | 1.5pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Goldline Pharmaceutical GMP ₹15 on issue ₹43 | 19 May 2026 | SME | +35.00% | +38.95% | 4.0pp | 96% | ✅ |
| NFP Sampoorna Foods GMP ₹8 on issue ₹55 | 25 May 2026 | SME | +15.00% | -0.91% | 15.9pp | 84% | ❌ |
| Vegorama Punjabi Angithi GMP ₹2 on issue ₹77 | 27 May 2026 | SME | +3.00% | +53.38% | 50.4pp | 50% | ✅ |
| Bio Medica Laboratories GMP ₹2 on issue ₹139 | 29 May 2026 | SME | +1.00% | -20.00% | 21.0pp | 79% | ❌ |
| Q-Line Biotech GMP ₹126 on issue ₹343 | 29 May 2026 | SME | +37.00% | +31.78% | 5.2pp | 95% | ✅ |
| Utkal Speciality Industries India GMP ₹1 on issue ₹66 | 17 Jun 2026 | SME | +0.80% | +0.00% | 0.8pp | 99% | ✅ |
| Susan Electricals India GMP ₹54 on issue ₹127 | 18 Jun 2026 | SME | +42.50% | +33.86% | 8.6pp | 91% | ✅ |
| Horizon Reclaim (India) GMP ₹55 on issue ₹103 | 19 Jun 2026 | SME | +53.40% | +46.60% | 6.8pp | 93% | ✅ |
| Liotech Industries GMP ₹1 on issue ₹321 | 24 Jun 2026 | SME | +0.30% | -19.94% | 20.2pp | 80% | ❌ |
| Leapfrog Engineering Services GMP ₹1 on issue ₹23 | 24 Jun 2026 | SME | +2.20% | -4.35% | 6.5pp | 93% | ❌ |
| Avience Biomedicals Limited GMP ₹72 on issue ₹196 | 25 Jun 2026 | SME | +34.60% | +101.63% | 67.0pp | 33% | ✅ |
| Advit Jewels GMP ₹46 on issue ₹138 | 01 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +33.30% | +36.88% | 3.6pp | 96% | ✅ |
| Waterways Leisure Tourism GMP ₹-28 on issue ₹808 | 01 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | -3.50% | -14.60% | 11.1pp | 89% | ✅ |
| CSM Technologies GMP ₹2 on issue ₹113 | 02 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +1.80% | +0.00% | 1.8pp | 98% | ✅ |
| Aastha Spintex GMP ₹3 on issue ₹136 | 06 Jul 2026 | Mainboard | +2.20% | -4.41% | 6.6pp | 93% | ❌ |
| Atharva Polyplast GMP ₹3 on issue ₹60 | 07 Jul 2026 | SME | +4.20% | +15.00% | 10.8pp | 89% | ✅ |
| Kratikal Tech GMP ₹33 on issue ₹135 | 07 Jul 2026 | SME | +24.40% | +42.22% | 17.8pp | 82% | ✅ |
Mainboard
90% avg accuracy across 76 IPOs
SME
84% avg accuracy across 94 IPOs
By GMP Magnitude
Low 91% | Mid 85% | High 80%
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP in predicting listing price?
Based on our data of 170 tracked IPOs, GMP correctly predicted the listing direction (gain or loss) 79% of the time, with an average price accuracy of 87%.
Is GMP enough to decide on an IPO application?
GMP is one indicator but not a guarantee. High GMP (>20%) generally indicates strong demand but actual listing depends on market conditions on listing day.