By ipomarket.in Editorial Team · Last reviewed: 2026-09-15
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. IPO investments are subject to market risks. Please read the offer document carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before investing.
A fresh wave of startup and consumer-tech companies is lining up to list on Indian exchanges. Names like Zepto, PhonePe, OYO, Zetwerk and InMobi have filed prospectuses with SEBI, and by most counts several dozen startups are somewhere in the IPO pipeline. For retail investors, the pull is obvious: these are familiar brands, often with genuine scale. But the data from the last cohort suggests the excitement needs a heavy dose of caution.
This article looks at what the numbers actually show, why the market's mood has shifted, and how to think about the risk without treating hype or grey-market chatter as a signal.
The headline risk: most recent IPOs trade below issue price
The single most important figure to sit with is this. As of 30 April 2026, 58.2% of the 115 IPOs launched between January 2025 and March 2026 were trading below their offer price, according to data compiled by Whalesbook. This is despite a strong debut record, with roughly 61.7% of those same IPOs posting positive listing-day gains.
That gap between listing day and later performance is the crux of the problem. Investors who held these stocks beyond the debut faced a median return of around –14% and an average return of about –6.85%, per the same dataset. In plain terms: the pop on day one flattered a lot of issues that then drifted lower.
This is why we keep repeating that a listing-day gain and a good investment are not the same thing. If you are weighing whether to hold or exit, our IPO listing day strategy guide walks through how to think about that decision.
2025 was a record year, but records don't guarantee returns
2025 was, by volume, an exceptional year. India saw 373 IPOs (103 mainboard and 270 SME) raising around ₹1.95 trillion, based on figures reported by Business Standard. SME issues now make up the bulk of activity, a sharp shift from a few years ago when mainboard deals dominated.
Volume, though, is not the same as quality. Several of the most hyped tech unicorn and consumer-brand IPOs of 2025 failed to deliver lasting returns. Mainboard average returns reportedly softened from healthy double digits to single digits over the year, and by February 2026 only a handful of mainboard IPOs had opened for subscription in the new year, a sign that investor appetite had cooled.
Why the market's mood has changed
The reasons behind the reset are worth understanding, because they tell you what the market is now rewarding and punishing.
1. A shift towards profitability
According to an Inc42 investor survey, 48% of investors now cite stronger fundamentals, profitability and lower cash burn as the primary trigger for backing a tech IPO, while only around 18% point to retail participation. That is a meaningful change from the growth-at-any-cost era. The market is applying what some analysts call a "profitability premium" and penalising richly priced issues that lack visible earnings.
Some startups approaching the market do have improving numbers to show. OYO reported net profit up around 172% year-on-year to about ₹623 crore in FY25, and Shiprocket reportedly cut its net loss by 87.5% to roughly ₹74.5 crore in the same year. Amagi, which listed in January 2026, turned profitable in H1 FY26 with a small net profit and revenue up 35%. Whether these translate into durable post-listing returns is a separate question the data has not yet answered.
2. Tighter regulation
SEBI has tightened several screws. It has restricted how much of the proceeds can go towards vague "general corporate purposes", limited anchor-investor lock-in behaviour, and mandated quarterly monitoring of how funds are actually used. These measures aim to protect investors from money being raised without a clear plan.
3. Valuation discipline
Many issues have come to market priced at levels that leave little headroom. When an IPO is priced to perfection, even a small disappointment or a weak market day can drag it below issue price quickly. Broader sentiment on listing day matters too. A fundamentally sound company can still list at a discount if the wider market is falling.
Mixed signals from recent listings
Recent examples show how uneven outcomes have been:
- LEAP India (issue closed August 2026) had a price band of ₹151–₹159 and was oversubscribed roughly 8.38 times, combining a ₹480 crore fresh issue with a ₹2,000 crore offer for sale.
- Shadowfax Technologies (listed February 2026) was subscribed about 2.72 times and reportedly listed at a discount to its issue price.
- Aye Finance saw weak demand, subscribed only around 0.97 times.
- Table Space filed its DRHP in August 2026, narrowing losses sharply while growing revenue, but its pricing and demand are not yet known.
The pattern is clear enough: subscription numbers vary widely, and even a well-subscribed IPO offers no guarantee of holding its price afterwards.
The big 2026 unicorns: still unknowns
Much of the anticipation centres on large consumer-internet and tech names. Reports suggest this cohort could target close to ₹50,000 crore in 2026 through a mix of fresh issues and offers for sale, though that figure is a pipeline expectation rather than a confirmed total.
Crucially, for the marquee names, the details that matter most are not yet disclosed. Issue sizes, price bands, subscription multiples and listing dates for the likes of Zepto, PhonePe, OYO and Flipkart remain unconfirmed as they sit at the DRHP or planning stage. Any GMP figure you see floating around for these is speculation, not data. If you want to understand why the grey market premium is a poor guide, read what IPO GMP is and how it works.
You can track filings and confirmed dates as they firm up on our upcoming IPOs list.
How to think about the risk, not the hype
The honest answer to "are these worth the risk?" is that it depends entirely on the investor and the specific company. The data points to a selective, not speculative, approach:
- Read the DRHP, not the headlines. The offer document tells you about financials, litigation, promoter selling and use of proceeds. Learning how to read a DRHP is the single most useful habit here.
- Separate listing gains from long-term value. The –14% median post-listing return is a reminder that the two rarely move together.
- Watch the offer-for-sale component. A large OFS means existing shareholders are cashing out rather than money going into the business.
- Be sceptical of GMP and influencer chatter. High-premium debuts have repeatedly failed to hold gains.
- Match the holding horizon to the company. A pre-profitability startup listing at a full valuation is a very different proposition over one year versus one week.
None of this is a reason to avoid the segment entirely. It is a reason to apply the same scrutiny you would to any expensive purchase.
FAQ
Are startup and tech IPOs in India a good investment in 2026?
There is no blanket answer. The data shows mixed outcomes, with more than half of recent IPOs trading below their offer price despite strong debuts. Companies with visible profitability and realistic valuations have generally fared better than hype-driven, richly priced issues. Assess each IPO on its own merits and your own risk tolerance.
Why do so many IPOs fall below their issue price after listing?
Common reasons include aggressive pricing that leaves no upside, large offer-for-sale components, weakening broader-market sentiment, and post-lock-in selling by early investors. Listing-day demand often reflects short-term speculation rather than durable value.
Should I rely on GMP to decide on a startup IPO?
No. The grey market premium is an unofficial, unregulated indicator that reflects sentiment, not fundamentals. Many high-GMP debuts have struggled to hold their gains. Treat it as noise rather than analysis.
Which big startups have filed for IPOs in 2026?
Reports indicate that companies such as Zepto, PhonePe, OYO, InMobi and Zetwerk have filed prospectuses with SEBI, and around 29 startups have filed DRHPs with more in planning. However, issue sizes, price bands and listing dates for most of these are not yet confirmed.
How is the 2026 IPO market different from 2025?
Investor focus has shifted noticeably towards profitability and cash-burn discipline, SEBI has tightened rules on fund usage and anchor investors, and appetite for pricey, loss-making issues has cooled. The market is behaving more selectively than in the record-volume year of 2025.
Last reviewed: 2026-09-15. Figures are drawn from third-party reports and are subject to change; verify against official offer documents before making any decision.